In light of the latest discussion in Frankfort that Daniel Mongiardo has been asked to get out of the U.S. Senate race by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in exchange for a cushy job with the Obama Administration (Mongiardo reportedly says he’ll do it, so long as it’s a job where he has a personal driver), his campaign has released an interesting internal poll.
We’ll just share the entire email blast with you:
MONGIARDO HOLDS DOUBLE-DIGIT LEAD OVER CONWAY;
LEADS BY 2O PTS AMONG DEM PRIMARY VOTERS
Mongiardo Shows Strong Support Throughout Kentucky in First Dem Primary PollFRANKFORT— U.S. Senate candidate, Lt. Governor Daniel Mongiardo holds a twenty point lead among Democratic primary voters over Attorney General Jack Conway in the Democratic U.S. Senate Primary in Kentucky in the first released statewide primary poll.Conducted May 12-13, Mongiardo wins 46% of the vote to Conway’s 26% among Democrats who voted in either the 2008 or 2007 Democratic primaries. Among registered Democrats, Mongiardo wins by 15 points. Mongiardo gets 43% of the vote, Conway has 28%, with 29% undecided. The poll conducted by Garin Hart Yang Research among 336 registered Democrats has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.4%
Kentucky Democrats want someone with a record of standing up for working families—whether in Louisville, Hazard or Paducah—and that’s why grassroot Democrats are supporting Daniel Mongiardo. Whether fighting for affordable health care, clean Kentucky coal, or taking on Jim Bunning in 2004, Daniel Mongiardo has shown that regardless of the odds he will fight hard to improve the lives of Kentucky families, said Kim Geveden, Mongiardo’s spokesman.
Mongiardo shows strong statewide support, but shows particular strength outside the Louisville media market where he has a nearly 30 pt. lead over Conway (49-22). In Conway’s political base in the Louisville media market, Mongiardo s runs competitively holding Conway to 42% of the vote and even has a slight lead in the Louisville media collar counties outside Jefferson Co.
Daniel Mongiardo’s impressive lead reflects strong support among grassroots Democrats, who know that despite overwhelming odds Daniel Mongiardo almost beat Jim Bunning in 2004 and that in 2010 Daniel Mongiardo is going to finish what he started by winning this race for Kentucky families whether against Jim Bunning or whoever is named as his relief pitcher, said Geveden.
And here’s the memo from GarinHartYang, Rod Blagojevich’s friends and pollster:
CLICK TO ENLARGE
The memo alleges, without providing cross tabs or any necessary information (like whether or not positive profiles were read to participants to help jack the numbers up, like Greg Fischer loved to do – keep in mind that Kim Geveden also worked for Fischer) to validate the numbers, that Mongiardo holds a 43 to 28 lead over Jack Conway, with most of his support outside of the cities. The stickler, though, is that there are a whopping 29% of undecideds.
Let’s also consider a few points before you swallow everything hook, line and sinker:
- The election is more than a year away.
- The poll included an unusually small sample of just 336 Democrats.
- The margin of error is rather high at plus or minus 5.4%.
While definitely possible to get a representative sample of potential voters, most polling includes much larger sample sizes than 300 and the margins of error– even for an operation like SurveyUSA and the polling outfit the Courier-Journal utilizes– never has a margin of error of more than 3 or 4 percent.
So take these numbers with a heavy grain of salt.