OAG Announces Post-Election Audit Counties

Attorney General Jack Conway just announced the six counties chosen to undergo post-election audits. The counties, selected in a random drawing this morning, will be the target of independent inquiries that will examine potential “potential irregularities that may have occurred during the primary election.”

Conway’s office also released this fancy picture of him from this A.M.

The counties drawn this morning are:

  • Butler
  • Calloway
  • Letcher
  • Perry
  • Trimble
  • Webster

Polling & All That for Beshear, McConnell

Mark Hebert reports that Governor Steve Beshear’s approval rating has improved by 6 points in the past month. Survey USA says 44% of Kentuckians approve of Beshear’s job while 50% disapprove. That’s up from 38-54 in April.

The survey shows a majority of men approve of Beshear’s work (50%-46%) while a majority of women do not (39%-53%). And Beshear is still suffering the pain of that state senate seat campaign and loss in eastern Kentucky.

On the U.S. Senate front, Hebert reports that Senator Mitch McConnell’s approval rating jumped 11 points. 57% approve of the job McConnell is doing and 37% disapprove.

The breakdown on McConnell’s Survey USA job approval numbers shows his biggest support coming from eastern Kentucky (62%-32%) and among men (65%-33%). McConnell is even polling fairly well among democrats (45%-50%) and African-Americans (57%-40%).

Lunsford Victory Party Live (& Maybe Hillz)

That’s right, kids. We’re live at Bruce Lunsford’s election night festivities and we may venture over to the Clinton event if we can stomach it.

Hopefully this is the end of what could be called an absolutely embarrassing U.S. Senate primary. And hopefully all Democrats will come together tonight/tomorrow in support of the eventual nominee… who happens to be Bruce Lunsford.

6:01: Not too many people here yet. They’re all probably still outside with the underwhelming Clinton crowd that stretches for almost a quarter of a block. Good food, though. AND ALCOHOL.

Peep the rest of the boring crap and/or live blogging after the jump…

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Fischer Drops $510K, Allegedly Raises $500K

In a press release today Greg Fischer’s U.S. Senate campaign said he gave his campaign (loaned?) $510,000 and only raised $500,000 during the first quarter of 2008. The campaign has long touted that it will have enough money be successful by doing the following:

  • Effectively build name I.D. up from the margin of error where it currently sits (a minimum of a 36 point jump in 5-6 weeks)
  • Spread a positive message and platform
  • Attack Bruce Lunsford often and deeply enough to politically wound him
  • Pay all campaign staff, consultants, media buyers and television stations

All great ambitions, but they’re just that– ambition. Since the campaign has only taken in a million dollars, there’s just about nothing it can do but begin working on an exit strategy. Remember the Miller-Maze campaign? Same amount of cash, same amount of time, same name I.D. Remember Steve Henry? He allegedly gave his campaign $500k (he never proved it and his media buyer was suspicious) to do what Fischer is hoping to do and where’d it get him?

Let’s break things down:

Fischer has $1 million. Let’s say he only has five campaign staffers (it’s a U.S. Senate race, that’s a super-low estimate) who only get paid $5,000 per month. That’s $25K/mo for the past 4 months. $100K spent. $900K remaining. Media strategy and production is going to easily be $50K for so-so quality and value. $850K remaining. A media buyer is going to take a 15% or so commission at minimum so that’s $130K. $720K remaining for actual airtime.

There are at least 9 media markets that need to be absolutely saturated beginning a few weeks ago in order to develop name I.D. and discredit an opponent. Let’s be generous and say he actually has $720K on-hand to buy ads. Television, radio, print, direct mail. You do the math. How effective can the campaign be at accomplishing what they hope to accomplish?

Love the truth or hate the truth, it’s an impossibility. There’s no way to battle an opponent with unlimited funds who can strike back in each and every way at a moment’s notice. If it were possible, Andrew Horne (who raised nearly $100k in just a couple weeks’ time) would still be in the race.

More on the SurveyUSA Poll Results

Some are having difficulty correctly comprehending the cross tabs of the latest senate poll. Here’s the skinny on the ‘Change Your Mind’ section – Could Change / Mind Made columns. A few folks seem to think the data indicate 38% of respondents could change their minds when it comes to voting for Bruce Lunsford and that 43% already have their minds made up.

In actuality, 24% of likely voters who responded say they could change their mind (see the bottom of the tabs) and a whopping 74% have their mind made up. Of the 24% who could change their mind, 38% are currently with Lunsford. Of the 74% who have their minds made up, 43% are with Lunsford.

Just wanted to break those points down.

Senate Poll Results: Lunsford has Huge Lead

In the ongoing battle (haha. battle. hahaha.) for the Democratic nod for U.S. Senate, we’re finally seeing some solid poll results. WHAS11 & SurveyUSA today released polling data that shows Bruce Lunsford the front-runner, more than 35 points ahead of opponent Greg Fischer. And like we said months ago, Fischer’s name I.D. is way below that of perennial candidate and moonbat David Lynn Williams, who is sitting at 11%.

Long story short:

  • Lunsford 42%
  • Other 17%
  • Williams 11%
  • Undecided 8%
  • Fischer 6%
  • Rice 5%
  • Wylie 5%
  • Cassaro 4%

See that? Lunsford has more support than than the rest of the candidate field combined. Fischer is sitting at the same level as three unknowns who have absolutely no shot– and he has a full campaign staff that has been spending money for months. We’re just seven short weeks away from the primary so there’s no possible way for Fischer to catch up. (But there’s still plenty of time for Michael Cassaro to finish in third place if we works hard enough.)

Love it or hate it, Bruce Lunsford is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate. Contributing to anyone else at this point would be a waste of money and a waste of time. It’s time to prepare for the McConnell whipping Bruce is going to experience.

Tuesday Update. Closer to Friday than Yesterday.

It’s what you’ve all been waiting for – the endorsement of the year – after months of nail biting and bated breath. We totally don’t understand why someone off the street making an “endorsement” matters? Daniel Solzman has “endorsed” Bruce Lunsford for U.S. Senate. [Things that make you go hmm]

Heather French Henry gets a mention in the story about George Clooney’s shindig in Maysville but her husband doesn’t get mentioned for being the former Lt. Governor. Oh, how the mighty have fallen. [Enquirer]

The state senate approved a budget with no new taxes. Meaning we’ll never have a budget in Kentucky. Further restoring everyone’s great faith in Frankfort. Special session is on its way. [PolWatchers]

Don’t forget that former President Bill Clinton is all over Kentucky today. 10:30 rally at the Frankfort Convention Center. 12:15 veterans event at the Bourbon County Fairgrounds American Legion Building. 2:30 rally at Mason County High School. 5:45 rally at the Morehead Conference Center. Everyone go take all kinds of pictures as you fawn all over the big dog. [The Arena]

Steve Beshear is now wondering why he bothered to run for governor. His approval rating fell below 50% and more Kentuckians disapprove of him than approve. WHAS11/Survey USA polling data say 46% approve, 48% disapprove. Those same numbers were 52-38 in February, meaning there’s been a six percent drop in less than a month. Ruh ro. [Hebert, Crosstabs]