Stats

A Real Look At That SurveyUSA Poll

WHAS11 has been all up on Mitch McConnell’s you-know-what lately. I mean, they gushed over his VA announcement for the fourth time on Saturday.

Their latest SurveyUSA results are really jacked up when it comes to partisanship. If the poll accurately reflected party registration, Bruce Lunsford would be ahead of Mitch McConnell by half a point.

Let’s put on our fancy math hat and take a look at how things would look if sampling could ever be done correctly:


UPDATE: Even Mark Hebert now admits that the poll is flawed.

Oh Snap Monday! What’d You Miss This Weekend?

Yeah, we know, this is a lot of information for a Monday morning. But we’re two weeks out from the election, so, whatever. At least you’ll have a lot more to read while wasting time this morning.

It’s nearly 2009 and Mitch McConnell is still perpetuating the myth that there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. And he again attempted to tie Iraq to the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States of America. Will this chickenhawk ever stop with the lies and deceit? [C-J]

Don’t record your vote in Kentucky. It’s illegal. We’re all gonna die of the illegal videuh recordin! Now we want to wear a hidden camera to record our experience. Badly. So. Someone pony up and give us a hidden camera kit. [H-L]

Mitch McConnell put out yet another email blast hyping fear over “San Francisco and New York Senators.” Exciting, isn’t it? McConnell complains that he doesn’t have enough money to keep up with rich liberal Bruce Lunsford (HAHA, liberal) and the “Democrat Senate Campaign Chair.” Nevermind that there’s no such thing as a “Democrat Senate Campaign Chair” – it’s the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. But it’s always been a McConnell tactic to mispronounce the name of the opposing party in an attempt to demonize it. [Lie-Filled Email Blast]

This is what we feel like when we try to explain the economy to, you know, anyone in Frankfort. [The Brokers With Hands On Their Faces Blog]

Read the rest after the jump…

Read more

Kentucky Voter Registration Up 50,000

According to the Kentucky Secretary of State, more Kentuckians are registered to vote now than ever before. The latest figures released from Trey Grayson indicate that 2,906,809 Kentuckians are registered to vote in the general election. That’s up from 2,857,231 in in the 2008 primary. And a net increase of 112,523 from 2004. (Never mind that other states have like 500K new voters, just go with it.)

“These figures are indicative of the diligent work of the State Board of Elections and County Clerks to ensure a fair and honest election while maximizing the number of registered voters in the Commonwealth. Because of their efforts, Kentucky has one of the best voter registration databases in the country,” stated Secretary of State Trey Grayson. “These healthy registration figures are an indication of a potentially strong turnout on election day.”

Here’s the breakdown:

  • Since May 2008, Democrats increased registration by 1.98% or 32,248
  • Republicans increased by 1.29% or 13,433
  • Others increased by 2.09% or 3,897
  • Democrats now comprise 57.18% of Kentucky voters
  • Republicans account for 36.26% of voters
  • Others make up up 6.57% of voters

What’s Up With Rasmussen Polling?

Rasmussen just released polling data on the U.S. Senate race between Bruce Lunsford and Mitch McConnell. Click here (PDF Link) for the crosstabs.

McConnell 51%
Lunsford 42%

They under-sampled Democrats. If you do the math, Rasmussen has 44% Democrats and 36% Republicans. If you weight things for expected turnout? It’d be a 5-point margin.

And check the crosstabs above. Pay close attention to “Vote for President” and “Most Important Issue.”

How is it that the Lunsford campaign is trailing 16 among McCain voters but are behind by 45 among Obama voters?

People who say National Security is their major issue favor Bruce 71-29 while those who rate the economy as the top issue favor McConnell 83-14…. but then Lunsford leads among voters who cite fiscal issues as their top pick by 10 points.

What gives?

Even the McConnell campaign things Rasmussen is total bunk. Justin Brasell told Trey Pollard in May of this year that Rasmussen polls are “bogus.” That was when the polling outfit showed Bruce Lunsford leading McConnell. The McConnell campaign issued a statement saying, “This is an indicator of what we can expect for the next five months. National Journal refuses to print Rasmussen polls, yet Democrat leaders will trumpet bogus polls like this one in a futile effort to create a false sense of momentum for the hand-picked candidate of New York Senator Chuck Schumer and the DSCC.”

We’re pretty sure Rasmussen is total bunk.

Woah! Beshear’s Approval At 60%!!

According to the Courier-Journal’s latest Bluegrass Poll, Governor Steve Beshear has an approval rating of 60%! Sixty! Only 23% now disapprove of the job the Governor is doing.

Beshear’s approval rating is 17 percentage points higher than former Gov. Ernie Fletcher’s was at this same point in his term.

It’s 7 percentage points lower than former Gov. Paul Patton’s was at this point in his term.

Beshear stumbled during his first legislative session, failing to get some of his priorities, including expanded gambling, through the General Assembly.

Quite a move for Steve Beshear. Quite a move. And that’s coming from us, his chief critic.

Rothenberg: Narrow Advantage for McConnell, Race Now a Toss-Up

From The Rothenberg Political Report:

SurveyUSA … Louisville Courier-Journal survey … found Sen. Mitch McConnell and challenger Bruce Lunsford locked in a tight race, a third poll – this one not released – confirms the dead heat.

Because of that, we are moving this race from Clear Advantage for McConnell to Narrow Advantage for McConnell, and we would not argue with anyone who rated the contest as a Toss-Up.

Snap!

Oh Snap Monday! Mitch Does Damage Control

God. These bitches are insufferable self-haters. Living in the wealthy east end of Louisville apparently makes it okay to self-hate and make shit up. It’s hilarious to watch then spin out of control about how cervical cancer “is not a woman’s issue.” The scary women! The scary trial lawyers! Oh my! [EITB]

Wondering how that Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll was conducted? The C-J published an FAQ of sorts. Pay close attention to the hilarious last sentence, Republishing or broadcasting the poll’s results without credit to The Courier-Journal is prohibited. Like the C-J would EVER credit any other publication for any reason. Haha. [C-J]

The Wall Street bailout helps Jim Bunning but hurts Mitch McConnell. And as a result all McConnell and his henchmen can do is complain about how terrible and awful and mean and awful and mean and terrible Bruce Lunsford is. Did you know he eats babies? And old people. [H-L]

“Dr” Ted is still as crazy as ever. Don’t you love how he perpetuates the Bruce Lunsford memes? He probably can’t even tell you what happened with Vencor. Nothing was Bruce’s fault, which is why McConnell hasn’t run ads about it (despite his wife sitting on the board). It’s laughable that anyone would be pushing such drivel. [The Bridge]

What was that about clean coal the other day? You folks were telling me how awesome it is and how it’s already changing the world. Never mind that it doesn’t exist. And. Oh. How clean coal is like healthy cigarettes. What Al Gore says. [Barefoot & Progressive]

Like Hebert says, JAMAKAIN!!!!’s lead over Barry O is shrinking. Slowly but surely. He’ll still win but it won’t be a super-tight race. McCain led Obama by 19 not long ago. Now he’s only leading by 12, according to the latest Bluegrass poll. [Mark Hebert]

In case you’ve forgotten or missed it: University of Louisville’s administration is retaliating against individuals perceived to be critical of anything happening at the University. Students, faculty and staff are being threatened with their jobs ad their education because they’re merely suspected of having spoken with us or reporters. Not exactly a great way to handle the problem, Ramsey & Willihnganz! [The Latest UofL Scandal]