Looks like those numbers that were leaked to me earlier were spot on.
- Rand Paul 49%
- Jack Conway 47%
- Undecided 4%
Jack’s up 7 points from the last SurveyUSA numbers.
I’ll update this post with a link if the old stream media gets with the program by putting something online.
P.S. Maybe the whole bit of Rand Paul not believing HIV leads to AIDS and other crazy things aren’t working out so well for him? (No, I’m not holding my breath)
UPDATE: Here’s that link.
Rand Paul leads in: Eastern Kentucky, Western Kentucky. It’s tied in North Central Kentucky and Jack Conway leads by 2 points in the Louisville area.
17 responses so far ↓
1 Reality Check // Sep 25, 2010 at 11:37 pm
Interesting… Will Conway pooh-pooh THIS SUSA poll like he did the SUSA poll earlier this month that showed him way behind? http://barefootandprogressive.blogspot.com/2010/09/defiant-jack-conway-pooh-poohs-susa.html
I’m guessing he might like this one… So that would make it accurate, this time, correct?
2 Key // Sep 26, 2010 at 12:02 am
Honestly after a day of canvassing in West Kentucky I felt pretty good about Jack’s chances. Many people commented they were impressed with Jack’s ads. I personally believe when err if, Jack introduces Kentucky to Alex Jones we can overtake Paul.
3 Brian // Sep 26, 2010 at 11:10 am
This is good news. I am wondering why SUSA completely changed the voter pool to favor democrats over 2008 levels.
4 spinnikerca // Sep 26, 2010 at 11:43 am
Am I missing a link to cross tabs in the WHAS 11 piece, or is it not there?
5 garyguss // Sep 26, 2010 at 5:10 pm
Conway needs to try to debate Paul if he can commit him to a venue somewhere without Rand being able to run away
6 Not Doug Martin // Sep 26, 2010 at 6:40 pm
“This is good news. I am wondering why SUSA completely changed the voter pool to favor democrats over 2008 levels.”
This is what stoopid sounds like.
7 Bruce Maples // Sep 26, 2010 at 6:42 pm
Conway needs to be up in Louisville by 10 points or more, I think. We need to leave here with a LARGE lead heading into the Central time zone.
My wish for four weeks from now? Even in East and West, leading in North, leading large in Louisville.
Time to keep working, keep donating, and start working on GOTV.
8 jake // Sep 26, 2010 at 6:47 pm
Donating? Really ? So Mark Riddle can make another fat paycheck? Or so another ad that doesn’t go far enough can air?
The only thing you can do that matters is get lazy motherfuckers to go vote. Get those Rascal Scooters fired up.
9 Bruce Maples // Sep 26, 2010 at 8:44 pm
Yeah, I keep donating, Mark or no Mark. Why? Because I’m still a believer in bottom-up, grassroots campaigns, and intend to keep putting my money where my mouth is.
They’re small amounts, but I keep giving them. Call me naive (I’m not) — call me idealistic (I am). I’m going to keep working and pushing for small-D democracy, and part of that means lots of people involved.
Sorry for the sermonette.
10 Whocares // Sep 26, 2010 at 10:05 pm
I’m not buying it They changed the voter pool. I trust Rasmussen and Zogby. I’ll reserve judgement until their polls come out.
11 Whocares // Sep 26, 2010 at 10:09 pm
Below is a real breakdown of the new poll. Flawed sample…
Unmentioned in the Herald-Journal’s story: The Survey USA poll that showed Paul up by 15 had a D/I/R sample of 47/10/42, which is in line with the 2008 Kentucky presidential exit poll sample of 47/15/38. Like I said up top, it stands to reason that Republican turnout will be better this year than it was two years ago. So what’s the sample in this new poll showing the race now within the margin of error? Why, it’s … 51/12/38. Once again, to believe Paul is ahead by only two, you have to believe that Democrats in Kentucky are going to turn out for Jack Conway in greater proportions than they did for Barack Obama. Ain’t happening, although it probably is true that the race has tightened since the poll that showed Paul up 15. Based on the spread here, figure it’s probably more in the neighborhood of eight points. Not a prohibitive lead, but comfortable.
12 James R. // Sep 26, 2010 at 11:22 pm
You go Bruce!
13 Thunder Storm // Sep 26, 2010 at 11:45 pm
Bruce, these guys can use a little and it will hurt David Williams too.
http://www.kysenatedems.com/?page_id=10
14 John Wall // Sep 27, 2010 at 10:40 am
Good idea Jake, discourage people from donating to the campaign. All of things you complain about Jack Conway not doing, cost money. TV, GOTV, staff etc. It is completely illogical for you to complain about his failed online fundraising efforts and then discourage interested and dedicated activists from helping the campaign with a contribution.
15 jake // Sep 27, 2010 at 10:51 am
Really?
Because I’m pretty sure the things I complain about Jack not doing involve almost no money: being himself and telling the truth about his positions. Two things he’s had extreme difficulty with.
And I’d feel differently about campaign finance if Jack hadn’t said on multiple occasions that he was ready to write a fat check from his own bank account. This isn’t some grassroots campaign for a regular Joe. It’s a campaign for a guy who can afford to self-finance.
16 John Wall // Sep 27, 2010 at 5:19 pm
So because Jack has a few dollars in pocket, interested individuals should be deterred from contributing to a cause they believe in? Also, you may lack a firm understanding of how much a targeted US Senate race cost but I can let you know it is not just a “fat check” away.
17 jake // Sep 27, 2010 at 5:37 pm
Yeah, that’s right, I have zero idea how much a U.S. Senate race costs.
And, yes, interested individuals should be deterred from contributing to Jack’s ill-managed campaign. Why waste your money this late in the game? Give him your time and energy if you so desire.
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