We’re half way through the Second Annual Golden Poo Awards nomination process. So you should probably drop a few, you know, nominations. [Page One]
The latest WHAS/A Kentucky Newspaper Bluegrass/Survey USA Poll has Rand Up up EIGHT POINTS over Jack Conway. Eight. This is the most accurate poll in Kentucky. So 8 it is. 51 to 43 with 5% undecided. Jack leads by a single point in Eastern Kentucky and Rand leads by five in the Louisville region (5 in Louisville!) 63% of moderates go Conway, as do 78% of progressives. Meaning Jack should probably, you know, stop pretending to be a Republican. Note to WHAS11/A Kentucky Newspaper: Cute little disclaimer you added to your story. You don’t accurately cite us (Joe does, the rest dont), so we’re definitely not accurately citing you. [Joe Arnold & Crosstabs]
I hope Rocky Adkins is prepared to file or disavow a candidacy for governor. He’s been telling folks at the Southern Legislative Conference in Charleston that he’s “testing the waters.” [Tons Of Folks Have Heard It]
The teabaggers have another black friend and he’s made a movie called “Runaway Slaves” or whatever. [Wonkette]
This is the single most stupid thing I have ever read. I thought she was huffing paint when she accused us of trashing her daughter (and has yet to apologize, as mindless idiots never own up to their own horse shiz – just make shiz up and promote it as Faux News reality), but this takes the cake. Seriously. How does this girl… wow. Digging? Hahaha. Maybe she’ll uncover that anonymous financier that never existed. Hahaha. [Mica Sims]
To suggest that the “Kentucky Leadership” PAC isn’t a partisan organization is silly. I love when newspaper reporters don’t bother digging into the makeup of organizations that develop. Also love it when partisan Democrats do the very things for which they attack Republicans. This lack of political maturity is why Kentucky can’t have nice things. [Bluegrass Politics]
Maybe now that Jack Conway is down by eight points to Rand Paul he’ll stop spending so much time on media outlets that no one in Kentucky reads talking about things the average voter doesn’t comprehend? [FDL]
Charlie Rangel fingered Mitch McConnell. This crazy old guy isn’t going to go down without a fight. [WaPo]
The entire country has been McConned by Mitch. His campaign finance disclosure hypocrisy is ripe. [H-L]
Republicans are wondering if Jack Conway will win, because of numbers, amen. [That Mommy Lady]
Jack is still dismissing these poll numbers. Despite every poll, forever, showing him down to Rand. Note to Jack: An outlier would require that all other polls show you in the lead. If you think this is going to be a cake walk, you need to think again. You need to figure out how [WHAS11]
14 responses so far ↓
1 lexdem // Aug 2, 2010 at 8:45 am
1st paragraph of Ms. Sims’ blog: “There is a certain mayoral race here in my own town that I have not paid much attention to.”
2nd paragraph: “Just because I have not blogged about the mayor race does not mean I haven’t been paying attention.”
Methinks she may have fallen of the pole onto her head one too many times if she can’t remember what she wrote, one paragraph to the next.
2 jake // Aug 2, 2010 at 8:47 am
Today’s Groupon in Louisville offers a sweet discount on pole dancing classes, fyi.
3 thomas paine // Aug 2, 2010 at 10:57 am
Didn’t Rasmussen also have the Senate race at an 8pt difference? Waiting for Magruder to dismiss Rasmussen as right wing hacks in 4…3…2…1…
4 jake // Aug 2, 2010 at 10:59 am
Rasmussen is a bunch of right-wing hacks.
But that doesn’t mean right-wing hacks can’t get it right.
5 Steve Magruder // Aug 2, 2010 at 11:07 am
Rasmussen is indeed Republican-leaning and that has been expressed in the vast majority of its results over time. Just because Mr. Rasmussen has finally adjusted his numbers to look like reality doesn’t excuse his past.
6 thomas paine // Aug 2, 2010 at 11:08 am
Memory serves as Magruder saying last Rasmussen poll which showed the 8 pt difference as “good news for Conway” because Rasmussen leans right. Just saying, that rationale is (and has been*) laid bare. And Magruder is wrong – again.
* See 2008 Final Rasmussen Presidential Poll.
7 Steve Magruder // Aug 2, 2010 at 11:13 am
It was good news for Conway, as it showed the race tightening. Eight points isn’t bad this far out.
Again, Rasmussen is a sneaky poll. They show outlandish results for a while and then when other polls start showing different (and more accurate) numbers, they do an “adjustment”.
Last, I don’t mind being wrong sometimes, but if you’re going to call someone out, at least have the decency to tell us who you really are. Otherwise, you are a coward.
8 thomas paine // Aug 2, 2010 at 11:21 am
I am a coward – that for some reason just enjoys pointing out why people shouldn’t pay attention to anything you say.
Sure you’re a nice guy but you don’t know jack about politics.
9 Steve Magruder // Aug 2, 2010 at 11:26 am
Calling out people from anonymity is cowardly.
And thank you for your opinion that I don’t know jack about politics. Of course, your cowardliness makes it impossible for me or others to track the things you have said in the past, politically speaking.
I wonder how your prognostications actually compare to others, or are you projecting?
10 wondering // Aug 2, 2010 at 12:51 pm
I have also heard that Adkins is considering running for governor. I also heard another source confirm what was posted here a few weeks ago that Richie Farmer is really trying to get the recently-vacated assistant AD job at UK and hopes to be in line to succeed Barnhart when he finally leaves.
11 Larry West // Aug 2, 2010 at 1:03 pm
The thing to do on any poll, whether you think they lean your way or against your way, is to look at the cross-tab information. What percentage of the people they polled were Republican, Democrat, and Independent? How close are they to what you feel the final percentage will be? For example, “that mommy lady” seems to think the percentage in November will be the same as the ratio percentage that voted in the primary, even though that has never been the case.
For example, the Survey USA poll believes that 50% of the electorate will be Democrat. If you believe the number is higher, then you can adjust the number based on the percentage of how the Democrats vote. Reverse if you think 50% is too high. In 2008, the percentage of voters was 47% Democratic, which would result in a 52.15% Paul, 42.01% Conway final. If you use the 2006 percentage of 44% Democratic, the results would be 53.64% Paul, 40.52% Conway.
Never trust a poll that won’t reveal what percentage of people surveyed are in each party.
12 Talkfan // Aug 2, 2010 at 2:13 pm
Paul is up 5 points — in Louisville?
Am I reading that right?
If so,
1) I can’t believe it (unless “Louisville region” takes in a lot of neighboring counties that are far redder than Jefferson Co.)
2) But if the Louisville numbers are accurate, how could Paul be ahead 5 points in Conway’s strongest area, but only 8 points ahead overall?
If Conway is behind in Louisville, this should be a rout, shouldn’t it? If Conway’s running behind in Louisville, but close enough everywhere else that he’s only down eight points overall, Rod Serling must have done this poll.
13 bestmid // Aug 2, 2010 at 2:14 pm
What’s Mica “digging” with? One of the pins she took from her head?
14 Lucas // Aug 2, 2010 at 3:35 pm
The fact that this SUSA poll has the same 8 points difference as the Rasmussen poll shows SUSA is completely bunk.
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