Comments on: Daniel Mongiardo Releases Internal Polling http://pageonekentucky.com/2009/05/28/daniel-mongiardo-releases-internal-polling/ an informed, savvy take on media & politics in Kentucky Thu, 09 Feb 2012 15:37:55 -0700 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Larry West http://pageonekentucky.com/2009/05/28/daniel-mongiardo-releases-internal-polling/comment-page-1/#comment-49993 Larry West Fri, 29 May 2009 02:47:59 +0000 http://pageonekentucky.com/2009/05/28/daniel-mongiardo-releases-internal-polling/#comment-49993 If you go to http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm and input a confidence interval (margin of error) of 5.4, and a population size of 707,797, the number of people who voted in the 2008 primary, you end up with a sample size needed of 329 -- thus if the Mongiardo campaign pollster gave out the right data in regards to margin-of-error and sample size, this lends credibility to the results. If you play around with the population numbers, you will find that the sample size needed changes very little - even if you put the number of Democrats in the entire state. If the questioning was done fairly (Was Darlene Price included? Was the order of the names given swapped evenly? Were only the items that will actually be on the ballot - the names themselves, and not the home cities or current position - given to the people?), and the sample not skewed based on whether or not the person surveyed was from Jefferson County or some other factor, then the survey was, I believe, probably accurate. What it shows is that at this time Mongiardo did not want to pay for a survey with a lower margin of error - that his campaign does not, at this time, have unlimited funds. [Note: If it matters, I have a BS Degree in Statistics from California Polytechnic and don't really care who wins the Democratic primary.] If you go to http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm and input a confidence interval (margin of error) of 5.4, and a population size of 707,797, the number of people who voted in the 2008 primary, you end up with a sample size needed of 329 — thus if the Mongiardo campaign pollster gave out the right data in regards to margin-of-error and sample size, this lends credibility to the results. If you play around with the population numbers, you will find that the sample size needed changes very little – even if you put the number of Democrats in the entire state.

If the questioning was done fairly (Was Darlene Price included? Was the order of the names given swapped evenly? Were only the items that will actually be on the ballot – the names themselves, and not the home cities or current position – given to the people?), and the sample not skewed based on whether or not the person surveyed was from Jefferson County or some other factor, then the survey was, I believe, probably accurate.

What it shows is that at this time Mongiardo did not want to pay for a survey with a lower margin of error – that his campaign does not, at this time, have unlimited funds.
[Note: If it matters, I have a BS Degree in Statistics from California Polytechnic and don't really care who wins the Democratic primary.]

]]> By: briansmith http://pageonekentucky.com/2009/05/28/daniel-mongiardo-releases-internal-polling/comment-page-1/#comment-49970 briansmith Thu, 28 May 2009 22:41:40 +0000 http://pageonekentucky.com/2009/05/28/daniel-mongiardo-releases-internal-polling/#comment-49970 Lt. Dan purportedly told the KY Young Democrats that he wants to take everybody in America's health records and store them in the caverns underneath the Louisville Zoo. To protect them from 9/11. He is said to have said that it would make Louisville a prime target for terrorizm. Like that's a good thing. I got it from a source. He topped it off, I am told, by saying "God gave us limestone for a reason". I wonder if anyone could verify this, or if there is a video out there? If it is true, someone needs to school his speech writers on the art of knowing your audience. Lt. Dan purportedly told the KY Young Democrats that he wants to take everybody in America’s health records and store them in the caverns underneath the Louisville Zoo. To protect them from 9/11. He is said to have said that it would make Louisville a prime target for terrorizm. Like that’s a good thing. I got it from a source. He topped it off, I am told, by saying “God gave us limestone for a reason”. I wonder if anyone could verify this, or if there is a video out there? If it is true, someone needs to school his speech writers on the art of knowing your audience.

]]> By: Let The Cat-Fighting Begin - FatLip http://pageonekentucky.com/2009/05/28/daniel-mongiardo-releases-internal-polling/comment-page-1/#comment-49969 Let The Cat-Fighting Begin - FatLip Thu, 28 May 2009 22:33:06 +0000 http://pageonekentucky.com/2009/05/28/daniel-mongiardo-releases-internal-polling/#comment-49969 [...] of liars and hanger-ons to Old-New Left orthodoxy. [In fact, you can read their meaty post on it here, which also points out the 29% of undecideds who will likely decide this [...] [...] of liars and hanger-ons to Old-New Left orthodoxy. [In fact, you can read their meaty post on it here, which also points out the 29% of undecideds who will likely decide this [...]

]]>