The self-anointed princess of the State Senate, Denise Harper Angel, isn’t as popular as she would have you believe. Harper Angel, you know, freaked when she learned she could have a legitimate challenger in Scott Ritcher. So she sued him into oblivion and admitted publicly that she wanted to “put him in his place.” So let’s look at the facts.
An estimated 29% of voters in Denise’s district preferred that their votes not be counted or chose to vote for an accused gunman over her. That’s about 13,000 people who voted against Denise.
Denise got her way, obviously, and votes for Ritcher weren’t counted. But he’s done some math to estimate the vote in the 35th Senate District. He assumed that since, well, here’s what he says:
Jefferson County’s voter turnout rate was 70.2%. District 35′s two most demographically similar neighboring districts posted comparable turnout rates, as did State House districts that overlap the same neighborhoods. Interestingly, the turnout reported in the District 35 Senate race was just 60%, the lower percentage presumably attributable to Ritcher’s votes being subtracted from the total turnout.
In District 37 to the south and west, a 65% turnout was reported, and a 72.6% rate was shown in District 19, to the north and east. The average turnout between Districts 19 and 37 is 68.8%, comparable to Jefferson’s county-wide average of 70.2%. From those numbers, a few estimates can be made concerning what actually happened in District 35.
If the Jefferson County turnout rate held its same average across District 35, it would mean 44,762 people voted in the race, not the 38,232 the county reported.
This means about 6,530 people voted for Ritcher. Despite signs being posted in polling locations that votes for him would not be counted and after being pushed out of the race by the Kentucky Democratic Party, Ritcher still took 14,5% of the vote.
8 responses so far ↓
1 gene // Nov 6, 2008 at 12:16 pm
She won, you lost. Take a chill pill and get over it.
2 jake // Nov 6, 2008 at 1:38 pm
I didn’t lose anything. Quite frankly, I won… because I get to call her ass out for the next hundred years. Every time she does something that disenfranchises voters.
3 Jeff Noble // Nov 6, 2008 at 2:45 pm
Jacob –
At the risk of losing a part of your friendship and grateful support, I am going to argue an unpopular stance and say I doubt Mr. Richter’s numbers add up to the 14.5% you and he claim, although I am sure there is some limited merit to your argument. That is to saythere is no doubt several people voted for him, but probably not in the numbers this analysis suggests.
But before I do, let me make some disclaimers. First, I haven’t looked at the entirety of the numbers but, as arguments such as these interest me, I promise you I will.
Second, my argument should not be taken as a judgement either in favor of Mr. Richter or against Ms. Harper-Angel. It is simply a defense of the numbers which for me is more important than any personalities involved. Numbers are how demographers tell politicans where to walk or not in a small scale race such as this.
Further, as you may know, I managed a primary campaign for Ken Herndon in 2004 against the newly reelected senator in her first race for this office. Herndon ran a distant second. With Ken in 2004, I’ve walked every single precinct in the 35th Senate, something I doubt neither Mr. Richter nor Senator Harper-Angel has done. I also know that David Kaplan, who ran fourth in that 2004 primary, also walked in every precinct.
Having said all that, here is my antithesis to your thesis. The 35th Senate district comprises some of the poorest voting precincts in Jefferson County. It was intentionally drawn that way in the 2002 redistricting by the Republicans so as to allow them to make the claim they were drawing a second African-American senate district in contrast to the Democrats’ proposal which clearly only allowed for one. In 2004, Shelby Lanier, a well-known African-American in a crowded field of four, ran a distant third in the Democratic primary, effectively disproving the Republican Party’s theory, which was never taken very seriously to start with, except by the House Democrats who traded favored precincts with them, but that is another story.
Today’s C-J internet site offers a map of the county’s precincts based on tuurnout in Tuesday’s election. Looking at that map (but admitting to not looking at specific precincts) indicates that most of Senator Shaughnessy’s precincts are in the upper echelon, that is those voting more than 65%. These include precincts in most of the Highlands, and extending out Shelbyville, Taylorsville, and Bardstown roads, and west into the lower parts of Germantown, Audubon Park, and Camp Taylor. Similarly, Senator Clark’s district has some heavy voting precincts, but not as many as Shaughnessy’s. Referencing the C-J map, you see 65%+ precincts along Greenwood Road, St. Andrews Church Road, Perry’s own precinct on New Cut Road, and several over in Okolona.
On the other hand, Harper-Angel’s district clearly undervoted most of the county, as it usually does. The 35th starts in the Highlands, crosses over to Old Louisville, taking in slivers of Schnitzelburg and Germantown along E. Oak Street, then out Taylor Boulevard to Bluegrass Avenue, then across through the airport to Newburg and Buechel. Of all of this area, only a handful of precincts in the Highlands, Newburg, and Buechel appear to have voted above 65%. There are also two precincts around Our Mother of Sorrows Church and two more along S. 3rd which show high voting. As I recall, there are 78 precincts in the 35th. It appears that at least 60 of them voted at or below 50%.
But, as I said, you’ve got my attention. The thing to do is go back and look at what was the turnout in other races within the 35th. I would say the best race to use would be the Supreme Court race between Abramson and Shake, or the race between Lunsford and McConnell. The presidential race is overvoted and shouldn’t be used.
My feeling is a much different result will be found than the one you have proferred here.
But, I could be wrong. I have been before.
JN
4 Tom // Nov 6, 2008 at 7:13 pm
Disenfranchise voters?? What do you call not locking in the required number of in district nominations. Really…. is Richert that slow or illiterate, or is it possible that he HIMSELF was disenfranchising voters by knowingly, UNTRUHFULLY entering a race by the means of nominations that weren’t legit by legal definition.
5 Jeff Noble // Dec 10, 2008 at 1:01 pm
Jacob –
Back on November 6 at 2:45 pm, in a comment above, I promised to do an analysis of the votes cast in the 35th, with the suggestion that Mr. Ritcher’s number would be far less than the 14.5% estimate made in your article.
The estimate was based on Jefferson County as a whole, along with the overlapping state House districts, as well as the neighboring state Senate districts. I have made my analysis on the actual votes cast in the 35th Senate district’s 76 voting precincts plus the absentees, walk-ins, and mail-ins.
Here are the bottom lines:
There were 39526 votes cast for president, out of a possible 63756 registered voters, for a turnout of 61.995%.
As I anticipated, this was far below the Jefferson County turnout numbers. You will recall I described the district as being comprised of some of Jefferson County’s poorest voting precincts. This analysis bears that out.
There were 39201 votes cast in the McConnell-Lunsford race, for a turnout of 61.486%.
There were 38938 votes cast in the Northup-Yarmuth race, for a turnout of 61,073%.
There were 38353 votes cast in the 35th Senate race, for a turnout of 60.156%.
This means a total of 1173 more votes were cast for U. S. President than for the Kentucky Senate District 35.
Additionally, 34035 votes were cast in the Kentucky House races within the 35th Senate District, for a turnout of 53.383%.
Finally, in the comment above I suggested we use the Shake-Abramson Supreme Court race as a further comp. It was the most heavily voted judicial race, outvoting even the very bizarre race between then-Judge Holton and now-Judge King. The Supreme Court race had 32302 votes cast, for a turnout of 50.665%. In the end I was wrong to consider this a comparable race.
But, back to the argument. Let’s assign the undervote between the presidential race and the 35th race in its entirety to Mr. Ritcher. We will give him every single one of the 1173 votes that were cast for president that were not cast for the Kentucky Senate. We both know that he would not have gotten 100% of this undervote, but for the sake of this argument, we will be generous and liberal, as it is the season for giving.
Doing so would result in the 35th Senate vote totals as follows:
Harper Angel — 32022, or 81.015%
Albers — 6246, or 15.802%
Richter — 1173, or 2.968%
Absentees — 85, or 0.215%
TOTAL — 39526.
Thus, using your argument on the undervote, the highest possible vote total for Mr. Ritcher would be 1173 votes, or 2.968%, well below the 14.5% you had estimated.
Any responses are appreciated.
JN
6 jake // Dec 10, 2008 at 1:09 pm
I assume, by “you had estimated” – you actually mean “Scott had estimated”… since it’s his material, email blast and website I used for the post?
Either way, nice analysis.
Denise is still a bitch.
7 unknown // Jun 26, 2009 at 5:27 am
Harper Angel is not a bitch, she is a hard worker and does alot for Kentucky and the senate. Harper Angel is a very caring person. So for you to say this about her, is not something that I will tolerate. No one else can do a better job for Louisville and Kentucky than she does. Suck it up, quit your crying, and realize it!
8 jake // Jun 26, 2009 at 7:18 am
You’re six months late and a dollar short.
Don’t like it? Don’t read it.
Leave a Comment