Hillary still wins the state, and it’s still called early. But it will be curious to see if Obama can win Louisville. It wouldn’t surprise me now if he pulls that off.

As far as the Michigan-Florida debate goes, I think you need to take a look at the two states separately. In Florida, a Republican legislature and governor forced the issue. Even so, all candidates stayed on the ballot. I’d have no problem if they seated Florida or cut its delegate count by half.

Michigan, though, was a true bi-partisan effort, and it’s not the first time Michigan has tried to cut in line.

Elendil- It’s possible you don’t know the reason why the Michigan and Florida results aren’t legitimate; although it helps the republican meme to pretend that something unequitable is occurring.

Michigan and Florida made choices knowing the consequences in advance; all the candidates signed an agreement accepting and supporting those consequences.

So my question is, are you merely ignorant; or are you misrepresenting the issue for some other purpose?

At the end of this primary the nominee will lead in all categories- pledged delegates, super delegates and the popular vote.

All of this talk that Obama has the election wrapped up is more likely to suppress his turnout and enhance her turnout. Add that to the fact that Hillary tends to do better than polling and you are looking at a large victory.

Not that the victory will help her. The interesting thing is that when you add in Florida’s votes she has a decent chance to actually win the popular vote in the Democratic primary. Not that it will help her get the nomination.

After all of the bitching after the 2000 election, I find it funny that the 2008 Democratic popular vote leader in the primary may not get the nomination.

Will it change the course of Obama’s march to winning the nomination? Not in the least.

Frankly I’m more than ready to get onto the slaughter of John McCain in the general and cementing the ongoing GOP collapse in Congress. Their three recent loses don’t bode well for the 25 seats House they have to defend this fall.

1st CD — Clinton 61, Obama 27. Obama scores some few numbers in McCracken, Hopkins, Christian, and Calloway, but nothing to impress. John Edwards picks up a few votes here.

2nd CD — Clinton 57, Obama 29. Obama has pockets of support in Meade, Warren, and Daviess, and maybe Hardin. “Uncommitted” runs up a few votes in the 2nd, maybe into double digits.

3rd CD — Obama 55, Clinton 42. Obama carries the 3rd with large support as expected in African-American precincts, as well some unexpected parts out 3rd Street, Preston Highway, and Shelbyville Road.

4th CD — Clinton 53, Obama 42. Obama garners support all through the 4th, with similar but losing percentages in each county, but none in large enough numbers to overcome Clinton.

5th CD — I expect the 5th CD to be a surprise in this contest. My brain says that the 5th CD should vote in numbers similar to West Virginia where Clinton won 67 to 25, but my gut says Obama does better than expected, but still loses. Clinton 55, Obama 42.

6th CD — Clinton 52, Obama 41. Lexington and Frankfort run up some numbers for Obama but not nearly enough, but still more that anticipated. “Uncommitted” does well here too, but not into double digits.

Kentucky as a whole goes for Clinton by less than expected but still a large comfortable win – Clinton 56, Obama 36.

JN

Pledged and Super Delegates combined, HRC would need to win 71% of these outstanding votes to surpass Obama- and she was only able to achieve 67% in her recent lopsided West Virginia win (and the dynamics for the remaining contest are not nearly as favorable to her).

Obama is 140 delegates away from the magic number; while HRC needs 303.

Is it statistically possible for her to catch up- absolutely. Is it statistically likely to happen- not really.

The GOTV game in Kentucky has gotten a lot better in the past few years mainly because of the activities of state progressives. Better voter files; voter ID; GOTV techniques; etc.

My personal perspective is that many of those people support Obama. Will their newfound campaign skills make a difference?

I guess we’ll find out.