Barack Obama’s presidential campaign is ramping up it’s get out the vote effort in the final week of the Kentucky primary. Obama’s rally in Louisville on Friday generated more than 1,400 new volunteers who will be out in full force to compete against the Clinton-Lundergan machine.
According to a press release today, the campaign says it will begin canvassing cities and small towns across Kentucky from 16 campaign offices and more than 30 additional staging locations.
The effort comes on the heels of Monday night’s major rally with Sen. Obama in Louisville. The event, which drew more than 10,000 people to the Kentucky International Convention Center, generated over 1,400 new volunteers for the Obama campaign in Kentucky, all of whom who will participate in the efforts over the next week.
“We are building one of the largest mobilization efforts that I’ve ever seen in this state,” said the Obama State Director and longtime Kentucky political operative Carolyn Tandy. “Given Sen. Clinton’s advantages here, everyone knows we have an uphill climb. But we are not going to be outworked when it comes to getting our supporters to the polls.”
So. Let’s take bets on this. Will Obama be competitive with with Clinton in Kentucky? Will the vote be closer than the million point spread all the polls are touting? Let us know what you think. Because this GOTV effort is huge.
9 responses so far ↓
1 UK Alumni // May 14, 2008 at 2:38 pm
Well this is all very entertaining, but the math remains fundementally the same.
Pledged and Super Delegates combined, HRC would need to win 71% of these outstanding votes to surpass Obama- and she was only able to achieve 67% in her recent lopsided West Virginia win (and the dynamics for the remaining contest are not nearly as favorable to her).
Obama is 140 delegates away from the magic number; while HRC needs 303.
Is it statistically possible for her to catch up- absolutely. Is it statistically likely to happen- not really.
The GOTV game in Kentucky has gotten a lot better in the past few years mainly because of the activities of state progressives. Better voter files; voter ID; GOTV techniques; etc.
My personal perspective is that many of those people support Obama. Will their newfound campaign skills make a difference?
I guess we’ll find out.
2 Jeff Noble // May 14, 2008 at 2:38 pm
Remember, Kentucky voters have four choices in next week’s Democratic Primary. Obama, Clinton, Edwards, and Uncommitted.
1st CD — Clinton 61, Obama 27. Obama scores some few numbers in McCracken, Hopkins, Christian, and Calloway, but nothing to impress. John Edwards picks up a few votes here.
2nd CD — Clinton 57, Obama 29. Obama has pockets of support in Meade, Warren, and Daviess, and maybe Hardin. “Uncommitted” runs up a few votes in the 2nd, maybe into double digits.
3rd CD — Obama 55, Clinton 42. Obama carries the 3rd with large support as expected in African-American precincts, as well some unexpected parts out 3rd Street, Preston Highway, and Shelbyville Road.
4th CD — Clinton 53, Obama 42. Obama garners support all through the 4th, with similar but losing percentages in each county, but none in large enough numbers to overcome Clinton.
5th CD — I expect the 5th CD to be a surprise in this contest. My brain says that the 5th CD should vote in numbers similar to West Virginia where Clinton won 67 to 25, but my gut says Obama does better than expected, but still loses. Clinton 55, Obama 42.
6th CD — Clinton 52, Obama 41. Lexington and Frankfort run up some numbers for Obama but not nearly enough, but still more that anticipated. “Uncommitted” does well here too, but not into double digits.
Kentucky as a whole goes for Clinton by less than expected but still a large comfortable win - Clinton 56, Obama 36.
JN
3 Elendil // May 14, 2008 at 4:53 pm
Clinton will win Kentucky by 30+ points. The only congressional district which will be close is the 3rd. My guess is the black vote and “bardstown rd” vote for Obama will be offset by the south end vote for Clinton making the district a toss up. In fact Jefferson County is probably the only county in Kentucky Obama has a shot at winning. The rest of the state will go in huge numbers for Clinton — just like Southern Indiana and West Virginia.
4 UK Alumni // May 14, 2008 at 5:20 pm
30 plus, really? Anything is possible I guess.
Will it change the course of Obama’s march to winning the nomination? Not in the least.
Frankly I’m more than ready to get onto the slaughter of John McCain in the general and cementing the ongoing GOP collapse in Congress. Their three recent loses don’t bode well for the 25 seats House they have to defend this fall.
5 Elendil // May 14, 2008 at 7:02 pm
I thought Hillary had a chance at 40 points in West Virginia. Once she surpassed that number, I realized that she would probably get 30 here in Kentucky.
All of this talk that Obama has the election wrapped up is more likely to suppress his turnout and enhance her turnout. Add that to the fact that Hillary tends to do better than polling and you are looking at a large victory.
Not that the victory will help her. The interesting thing is that when you add in Florida’s votes she has a decent chance to actually win the popular vote in the Democratic primary. Not that it will help her get the nomination.
After all of the bitching after the 2000 election, I find it funny that the 2008 Democratic popular vote leader in the primary may not get the nomination.
6 UK Alumni // May 14, 2008 at 8:07 pm
I guess no one should be too surprised that conservatives are still pretty ignorant on the Democratic Primary process. And I can see why conservatives in particular are unclear about the Florida- Michigan issue; it’s complicated (following rules) and requires some effort for them to understand.
At the end of this primary the nominee will lead in all categories- pledged delegates, super delegates and the popular vote.
7 Elendil // May 14, 2008 at 9:19 pm
I thought every vote counted :)
8 UK_Alumni // May 14, 2008 at 9:45 pm
You know, I’ve noticed an unfortunate tendancy for conservative folks to be either willfully ignorant, or willfully deceitful.
Elendil- It’s possible you don’t know the reason why the Michigan and Florida results aren’t legitimate; although it helps the republican meme to pretend that something unequitable is occurring.
Michigan and Florida made choices knowing the consequences in advance; all the candidates signed an agreement accepting and supporting those consequences.
So my question is, are you merely ignorant; or are you misrepresenting the issue for some other purpose?
9 Steve Bittenbender // May 14, 2008 at 11:29 pm
It will be interesting to see if there’s any “Edwards effect” here next week.
Hillary still wins the state, and it’s still called early. But it will be curious to see if Obama can win Louisville. It wouldn’t surprise me now if he pulls that off.
As far as the Michigan-Florida debate goes, I think you need to take a look at the two states separately. In Florida, a Republican legislature and governor forced the issue. Even so, all candidates stayed on the ballot. I’d have no problem if they seated Florida or cut its delegate count by half.
Michigan, though, was a true bi-partisan effort, and it’s not the first time Michigan has tried to cut in line.
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